Bowman 2020 Is So Overhyped

Topps released Bowman 2020 in the middle of the huge hobby bubble that has been going on this year and the prices for boxers have been staggering. I see hobby boxes going for close to $300 on Ebay  regularly. I feel like the hype around Bowman is not so much for the product itself, but rather the hype that has been in the hobby all year and is spreading to any product that is remotely popular.

Most of the increase in box prices has been in basketball with the combination of this year's strong rookie class and renewed interest in basketball after The Last Dance aired. Because basketball wax has been virtually sold out everywhere and prices are through the roof, collectors are looking for other sports to buy. Hockey is no big deal and football releases haven't quite started yet, so you end up with baseball (soccer has caught on fire, too).

Bowman is all about prospecting, the concept of finding cards of guys that could be great players in a few years, at which time you flip their cards for a profit. The problem with Bowman being so expensive now is that it makes prospecting futile if you decide to grab your cards by purchasing wax. The whole idea with prospecting is that you buy low and sell high. You try to find a diamond in the rough that turns out to be a better player than what everyone anticipated and you sell his card for more than you paid.

The two big prospects in this year's Bowman with their 1st Bowman cards are Jasson Dominguez and Bobby Witt Jr. Dominguez cards are already creating a sensation, which frankly is ridiculous. He's only 17. At the prices his cards are going for on Ebay, he would have to turn into a future Hall of Famer in order to make money back on what you are paying for him now.

It's funny reading scouting reports about Dominguez, who was signed by the Yankees as an undrafted international player. Scouts gush over him, calling him the next Mickey Mantle or Mike Trout. But go back and look at the top ten prospects from each year of the last decade or two. Those lists are just littered with names of guys that never made an impact in the big leagues, and some of who never even made the show at all. Frankly, it's insane to pay this much money for a chance to own a card of a teenager who may never even make the majors. 

The problem is that even if Dominguez turns out to be a pretty good player and have a long career, his cards are so expensive right now that being pretty good would not be enough to flip him for a profit. And if you're just someone that likes collecting Bowman prospects cards or whatever, you're better off waiting a few years when the hobby has forgotten about him.

That's why buying rookies when they are overpriced makes absolutely no sense. They almost always decline in price. Even if they don't decline and the prices stay stable for years, that just gives you years of opportunity to buy rookies at the same price.

The only way I can see making money here is to buy Dominguez cards raw and then send them to PSA for grading and hope they come back a 10. But that's another crapshoot as honestly I can barely tell the difference between a PSA 9 and a PSA 10, and I'm suspicious of people who claim they can.

Bowman in 2020 is another example of how big spending has come back into the hobby, and turned it from a pastime to something that speculators are trying to make money with. I don't think there are too many people willing to spend this much money on Bowman 2020 just to own the cards for fun. The only reason to buy into this is the belief that you can turn around and sell these cards for more money very quickly before the hype dies. That's not collecting. Also, that's not investing. At best, it's speculating. Really, though, it's gambling.

Honestly, I don't have a moral objection to gambling on baseball cards. It can be fun. We need to call a spade a spade, though, and use honest language when discussing the hobby. There is a difference between collecting cards of your favourite player and buying cards with the hopes of turning a profit on them. It's not investing. I hate it, really hate it, when people describe this as investing. It's speculation and it's gambling. It can be exciting, but you need to know what you are getting into, otherwise you can get taken advantage of.

What's your opinion of Bowman 2020?